MLB Best Bets of the Day: July 30, 2012

Look for a pitcher’s duel in this one.

It’s funny, I hear people say “leave the emotion out of it” all the time, and yet when I take their advice it’s always as if it comes back to haunt me. Yesterday, I kept my emotions out of it when selecting the Miami Marlins to beat the Padres by 1 ½ runs. My emotions, were telling me “you must be f$%@king crazy to bet on Josh Johnson!” Well, at least a part of me was right.

Josh Johnson, who I warned could be traded, did nothing to increase his trade value on Sunday. Going 5.0 innings Johnson walked six, and while he did only give up one earned, he allowed far too many Padres to reach base. It just goes to show, always follow your instincts!

Detroit at Boston 7:10 PM Scherzer vs Buchholz

Today my instincts are telling me to take the Red Sox at home, and their .344 career team batting average (.313 without David Ortiz) when facing Max Scherzer. That said, Scherzer has been hot lately and if the kooky Red Sox manager decides to send out a lineup card without Ellsbury and Crawford, my instincts could have been misled.

As hot as Scherzer has been (four-straight wins without a loss) Clay Buchholz has been equally as hot. The Red Sox starter has put his team in a great position to win in six of his last seven outings as Boston has won six of those games and Buchholz has received four wins in that time.

Picks: Red Sox -112 and Under 9 ½ (-115)

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota 8:10 PM Quintana vs De Vries

This one features two of the hottest hitting teams in baseball over the past seven days.  The White Sox, who have put up eight runs in just over 11 innings against De Vries, come off a series in which they beat the Rangers and regained the AL Central division lead. The Twins are on what we “call a winning streak, [and] it has happened before.” After winning three in a row against the Indians, the Twins look to keep it going against a much better White Sox team – don’t expect the same results!

As mentioned, De Vries has had some trouble with the White Sox lineup. While he is only personally responsible for one loss in his two games started against the Southsiders, De Vries has given up quite a few hits and more importantly runs, albeit most unearned. The White Sox send out left-hander Jose Quintana who has also had his fair share of difficulties when facing today’s opponent. Josh Willingham (2-for-3, two home runs and four RBI) has singlehandedly made Quintana’s life hell. Look for a lot of runs in this one and a wild finish.

Picks: White Sox -125 and Over 9 (-110)

See below for the rest of the day’s lines: